Surprise UK consumer confidence boost could be good for Christmas retail - GfK

By

Nigel TAYLOR

Published
Nov 24, 2023

Just when it looked like UK consumer confidence was having an end-of-year wobble, numbers on Friday from data company GfK for November were a surprise, and a potential pre-Christmas boost for retailers.

Its headline Consumer Confidence Index bounced back six points, despite the country’s continuing cost-of-living concerns. It followed October’s nine-point dip and now has an overall reading of -24.

Meanwhile, all five measures in the monthly report were up compared to last month, but almost all still in negative territory.

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up three points at -16, eight points better than November 2022; while the forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased five points to -3, which is 26 points higher than this time last year.

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up five points at -49, some 18 points higher than in November 2022. Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months increased by six points to -26, some 32 points better than November 2022.

The major purchase index is up 10 points to -24, 14 points higher than this month last year, while the savings index is up four points at +29, eight points higher than this time last year.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, said: “Recent ups and downs in confidence have underlined the nation’s topsy-turvy economic mood as encouraging news about falling inflation and wage growth is offset by high personal taxation, alongside costly fuel and energy bills.

“Although the Overall Index Score is still tracking firmly in negative territory, it is good to see that consumers are more optimistic about their personal financial situation. This shows people are thinking about their future with increased confidence and willingness to look beyond the short term.”

He added: “The dramatic 10-point jump in our major purchase sub-measure, reversing some of the worrying 14-point drop we saw last month, will be good news for retailers looking to benefit from Black Friday and Christmas. Despite the acute cost-of-living pressures, many would still like to loosen their purse strings just a little so they can enjoy that feel-good factor we all associate with the festive season.”