Storms deter Scottish shoppers, stores hope for festive boost

By

Nigel TAYLOR

Published
Nov 15, 2023

Storms battered Scottish retail last month and combined with the cost-of-living crisis “it was a miserable start to retail’s golden quarter”, the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) said Wednesday.

SRC director David Lonsdale noted the “significant weakening” equated to the poorest monthly performance since July and a fourth consecutive month of real terms decline in the value of retail sales.

He said the downturn was seen across all categories but was particularly pronounced in non-food, “which saw its first decline since May”. 

At least “lower-priced indulgences” such as cosmetics and fragrances “fared well”, as did sales of Wellington boots… “unsurprisingly given the drookit [extremely wet] conditions”. 

Also, formalwear was a “bright spot” as people returned to corporate events and prepared for the looming party season, but “clothing overall suffered” as did sales of larger-ticket items including white goods, electricals, and furniture, he noted.

And the numbers? Total sales for the four weeks 1-28 October were up 2.9% compared to 12 months ago when they had grown 6.3%. This was below the three-month average increase of 5% and below the 12-month average growth of 8.2%. Adjusted for inflation, the year-on-year decline was 2.3%.

On a like-for-like basis, Scottish sales increased by 2.8% compared with October 2022, when they had increased 4%. This is also below the three-month average increase of 4.6% and the 12-month average growth of 6.3%.

Total non-food sales fell 1% in October compared to 12 months ago, when they increased by 2.4%. This was below the three-month average increase of 2% and the 12-month average of 4.9%.

Adjusted for the estimated effect of online sales, non-food sales dipped 1.9% last month versus October 2022.

Lonsdale added: “Hopefully, the downturn in sales is only temporary. That said, it may continue for a little while yet as indications are that households are delaying Christmas-related spending in the hope of grabbing a bargain during Black Friday discounting.

“With consumers so price-sensitive it is critical that the Chancellor and Finance Secretary in their upcoming budgets seek to support consumer confidence whilst helping retailers to keep down prices at the tills. The marked deceleration in shop price inflation should assist, as should the temporary discounts to peak rail fares and mooted council tax freeze. 

“However, we need to see Ministers rule out a hike in the business rate which would add significantly to shopkeepers’ outgoings and put upward pressure on prices for consumers.”